NOTE: See also Limits and Feedback a supplimental summary.
MY ARGUMENT: The effect of CO2 on Earth’s temperature is limited by the following:
- The saturation effect of greenhouse gases view topic
- The removal of atmospheric CO2 by oceans and vegetation view topic
- The limited amount of fossil fuel available (reserves) view topic
DOUBLING ATMOSPHERIC CO2
- Doubling atmospheric CO2 causes average global surface temperature to increase by less than 1ºC.
- Predictions made by Global Climate Models (GCM’s) used to predict global warming far exceed actual data. view topic
- A tool is provided for the reader to make calculations on his own, including derivation of the method view topic
- The feedback effect of increased atmospheric water vapor due to greenhouse ocean warming is small, about 0.08C. view topic
- Calculations are quite independent of conditions assumed, including cloud cover, providing all other conditions remain the same before and after increasing CO2. This is a condition for calculation only, to isolate the change due to CO2 concentration and cloud cover. The results are still valid view topic
- Albedo is the ability to reflect sunlight incident upon a body. Commonly used value for earth’s albedo is 0.30 Raising albedo from 0.30 to 0.31 lowers earth surface temperature by about 1ºC. The most significant variable in albedo is cloud cover. view topic
- Clouds affect global temperature, tending to lower it. view topic
- Cosmic Rays enhance cloud formation and sunspots impedes the effect of cosmic rays. view topic
- World Temperatures have changed considerably over history, with records (ice core) going back 450,000 years. World Temperature average has changed only slightly and is essentially flat since 1999. view topic
NOTE: To conceptualize the flow of energy into and out of earth, view topic
- The ability of earth to retard the escape of absorbed (solar) heat is called the Greenhouse Effect
- When greenhouse effect increases, the earth’s surface temperature must rise to reject the heat it absorbs from the sun. view topic
- Water vapor in the atmosphere exerts a stronger greenhouse effect than CO2
- Fossil fuel reserves are projected to last over 700 years. view topic
- Presently the average earth surface temperature is 15ºC = 288ºK = 59ºF
- Only one half (approximately) of the manmade (anthropogenic) carbon emissions remain in the atmosphere view topic
- Most of the unaccounted for anthropogenic CO2 is dissolved in the oceans
- Increasing oceanic CO2 does lower pH (tend to acidify), but the ocean pH will never become acidic (pH < 7) view topic
CO2 in atmosphere is significantly affected by changing ocean surface temperature, which I call the “ocean’s bottle pop effect”; i.e., CO2 goes up with increasing temp. and down with decreasing temp. view topic.
There is a theory that a significant amount of absorbed solar heat remains in the ocean, and will act to increase temperature:
- The oceans expand with increasing temperature, which would result in a serious increase in sea level rise, which has not happened (presently 3 mm per year)
- Melting of polar ice increases ocean volume, if combined with heating of oceans would accelerate rate of sea level rise.
- It is relatively easy to measure thermal properties of the atmosphere, mainly by satellites
- It is difficult to measure thermal properties of the ocean because of the high accuracy of thermometry required and the many locations, horizontal and vertical, required for comprehensive measurement.