Lifetime of Fossil Fuel Supply

The world’s fossil fuel reserves, following the consumption pattern from 1960 to 2010, is 765 years after 2014,

COMPUTATION OF WORLD FOSSIL FUEL RESERVES & CO2 EQUIVALENT TONNAGES

Existing Atmospheric CO2 Content                         3.1E12 tonnes*
.                                                                               or 0.845E6 megatonnes  Carbon**

Fossil Fuel Reserves (including oil and gas in shale)                                                                                       1.0E7 megatonnes Carbon

CO2 Emitted from Fossil Fuels in 2010                          3.1E10 tonnes,                                                                                     or 0.0084E6 megatonnes Carbon

*1 tonne = 1.1 tons = 2,200 lbs.
** 1 tonne carbon dioxide contains 12 (MW Carbon)/44 (MW CO2) = 0.273   tonnes carbon

ORNL%20Graph

CALCULATION OF YEARS OF FOSSIL FUEL RESERVES REMAINING

y = tonnes carbon emitted from 1960 to time t =10E12 tonnes carbon equivalent in reserves

Production Rate:
dy/dt megatonnes/yr = 3039.3 * exp (0.0221*t), where t = years after 1960.
From plot above, from (Oak Ridge National Laboratory) ORNL data.

 Calculate time to produce 1.0E7 megatonnes carbon:  first integrate dy/dt from 0 to t years:

y = 3039.3/0.0221 * exp(0.0221 t) = 1.0E07 megatonnes

Rearranging:       t = (ln y – ln 3039.3)/0.0221,

and for y = 107 megatonnes, or 1013 tonnes, t = 819 yrs after 1960,  or 765 years after 2014, following the pattern from 1960 to 2010.

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